Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
